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Like many other people around the world I have spent the last week observing the developments in the Gaza Strip from the screen of my laptop, regularly checking for updates and analysis. Of all the articles, pieces, and posts that are floating out there around the internet, the one I find the most compelling is a recent post on Foreign Policy’s blog “Passport”. In this post Blake Hounshell eloquently articulates the question that had been bothering me but I hadn’t been able to put my finger on:
“[W]hy would Israel be willing to trade some temporary advantages in Gaza for a number of strategic setbacks: the effective end of the Annapolis process, a possible collapse of the peace track with Syria, worldwide opprobrium, a reinvigorated radical camp in Iran, the further undermining of pro-Western regimes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and a Hamas that may in fact emerge stronger vis-à-vis the ever-shrinking Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah faction?”
What makes Hounshell’s analysis so much more relevant and compelling than that of other pundits and bloggers is that he has reframed the question. Instead of asking what Israel and Hamas stand to gain from firing missiles and rockets, Hounshell reminds us of what we all stand to lose. The strategic setbacks that he describes will have detrimental effects for years to come. While I think that his description of the “pro-Western regimes in Egypt and Saudi Arabia” conveniently ignores both of those countries’ anti-democratic elements and practices, his prediction of a “reinvigorated radical camp in Iran” is already being realized. More on developments in Iran after the fold. Read the rest of this entry »
