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There isn’t much new major news coming out of the BRIC countries this week, so instead, I will give you a quick roundup of some of the stories that have been developing through the weeks:
Russia is continuing its expansion of influence over its neighboring countries in whatever way possible. As we have documented through the weeks, it is clear that the conflict in Georgia, the continuing spat over the missile shield in Poland, and the energy dispute in Ukraine are all part and parcel of the same effort of Russia to bring itself back into global prominence. This week, Russia has promised Kyrgystan a $300 million loan and a welcoming-back into the fold if the former satellite country will close its U.S. military bases that are being used to support the war in Afghanistan.
It is interesting to ponder whether these moves are actually tactically relevant, or whether they are more psychological stabilizing to the Russian mind. To be sure, it is probably a bit of both. Russia may be looking well into the future at impending conflicts over energy and hoping to create a sort of barricade of large countries around it; at the same time, it seems in large part that the motivation is psychological, as Russia feels increasingly separated and ideologically differentiated from the countries that surround it, and needs to carve its own niche.
India continues to wrestle with Pakistan over the Mumbai crisis, and not much has changed. India has supplied what it believes to be proof of the attacker’s origins, which Pakistan has accepted–but denied any accountability. It also appears (according to Reuters in that article) that the U.S. has backed away its pressure and involvement in the situation, without which India is losing some steam. This let-down of international pressure is what I warned against allowing a few weeks ago, and despite my provocations it has occurred. Tomorrow’s-President Obama will be put in a tough situation to respond to Pakistan having missed the opportunity to make reasonable demands that will not be seen as hostile.
In lighter news, a fantastic movie, Slumdog Millionaire, won the Golden Globe for best picture and stands an almost sure-bet to receive an Oscar nomination. The movie tells the story of an Indian boy growing up in various areas of India (including Bombay/Mumbai) through his appearance on the Indian version of “Who Wants to be a Millionaire?” I might speak more about it in the future, but in the meantime, go out and see it both for its interesting portrait of life in the lower classes of India and its cinematic magnificence.
Brazil is still taking the lead on the Doha development round. This might be somewhat surprising given the current financial crisis, but it may be indicative of an important ideological difference from the incoming administration in the U.S–as we gear up for Keynesian deficit spending in the trillions and its potential corollary of protectionism, Brazil is still pushing free trade to the front of the agenda. It could just be an opportunistic move by a developing country looking to rise out of the crisis in a much better position, but in any case, evidences a commitment that is interesting at the least.
Finally, China is participating in a program among the ASEAN countries of Southeast Asia to create a fund to ward off effects of the financial crisis. This is interesting in part with its combination of other efforts to insulate itself from the effects of the crisis by pushing off effects onto other nations, as I wrote about here. I’m not quite sure what to make of this move, but it is worthwhile to watch China’s movements in this crisis. China is the largest creditor to the United States, assuring that both countries are linked inextricably while pursuing opposite goals. How each country emerges from this crisis will be important to the other.
Such is the state of the BRIC world on this Monday, January 19, 2009. There is an important story with significant impact on U.S. foreign policy and economic life in each nation, evidencing the importance of the study of these nations. I’ll make sure to keep you updated in the coming weeks, so keep checking back every Monday at mid-day.
